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I thought Id put in a protest vote: the people who regret voting leave

| December 5, 2017 | Trending | No Comments

In June 2016 they voted out of Europe, now theyre not so sure. Meet the Brexit voters who have changed their minds

On the morning of 23 June 2016, Rosamund Shaw still wasnt sure if she wanted Britain to leave the European Union. During the preceding weeks, she had been in turmoil. She absorbed a stream of negative stories about the EU in the Daily Mail, but wasnt sure they were reliable. She trusted Boris Johnson, but loathed Michael Gove. Her family was divided. One daughter, who worked abroad, was a staunch remainer; the other an adamant leaver. Upending the usual age dynamic, her younger relatives complained of eastern European migrants costing them work, while her mother, who had lived through the second world war, felt that the EU had guaranteed peace in Europe. In the voting booth, Shaw finally made her choice: she voted leave. To be quite frank, I did not believe it would happen, she says. I thought Id put in a protest vote. The impact of my stupidity!

As soon as Shaw saw the result the following morning, her heart sank. I was in shock, she remembers. Even though I voted leave, I thought, Oh no! This is terrible! Then all hell broke loose. The texts started flying. There was a massive fight on Facebook.

Rosamund Shaw is a pseudonym. If she was identified, she says, it might inflame the bitter family row that has been raging since last June, and she still hasnt told her remainer daughter the truth about how she voted. In the weeks after the referendum, she found herself feeling apologetic around EU migrants. I feel I need to smile and talk to people who are waiting on me in pubs and cafes and say, Im really glad youre here. I dont want you to go.

A few months ago, Shaw was hospitalised after an accident. That was the catalyst that brought me over strongly to remain, she says. Ninety per cent of the people who dealt with me were immigrants. I thought, what the hell are we doing? This is wrong on so many levels. Weve opened Pandoras box and that distresses me beyond measure.

How does she feel now about her decision on 23 June?

I feel horrified with myself that I was so gullible, she says heavily. I feel ashamed.

***

Seventeen months after the referendum, the regretful leave voter is the dog that hasnt barked. Since the result came through, remainers have anticipated a significant U-turn for many reasons: the protest voters who didnt expect leave actually to win; the ones who felt misled by the promise of 350m a week for the NHS; the ones spooked by the plunging pound and, more recently, the faltering negotiations. Surely, they felt, enough voters would see the error of their ways to weaken the mandate for hard Brexit at the very least.

In fact, the figures have remained stubbornly static. In April, the British Election Study surveyed almost 28,000 voters and found that 11% of leave voters expressed regret but so did 7% of remain voters. While opposition to Brexit is hardening among remainers according to YouGov, the number who believed the referendum result should be honoured plummeted from 51% to 28% between June and October movement from leave to remain is slow. In October, the proportion of voters who felt that Britain had made the wrong choice reached a new high of 47% versus 42% (the rest werent sure). But thats not yet enough to change the political calculus. However the question is phrased, the level of regret remains consistent with that following the 2015 election. The people featured in this article are a minority.

Its not that nobody is changing their minds, explains Joe Twyman, co-founder of YouGov. Very few are, and when they are, theyre cancelling each other out, so the aggregate level change is very small.

For experts in voter behaviour or cognitive science, however, this is unsurprising. Humans do not instinctively enjoy changing their minds. Admitting that you were wrong, especially when the original decision has huge ramifications, is a painful and destabilising experience that the brain tends to resist. Research into this kind of denial has given us concepts such as cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.

When you have a strong view about something, youre likely to reject information thats contrary to your view, reject the source of the information and rationalise the information, says Jane Green, professor of political science at the University of Manchester and co-director of the British Election Study. We select information thats consistent with our views, because its more comfortable and reaffirming. In fact, its physically pleasurable. Some recent studies of confirmation bias indicate that consuming information that supports our beliefs actually produces a dopamine rush.

In the case of the referendum, there are additional factors that make it even harder for people to change their minds. For one thing, the decision in the voting booth feels irrevocable. Someone who regretted, say, voting for the Liberal Democrats in 2010 could choose another party in 2015, but someone who feels bad about voting leave doesnt (yet) have a second chance. This makes life difficult for pollsters. While they can ask voters how they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow, a question about a hypothetical second referendum is controversial. Brexit opponents, including Nick Clegg and Alastair Campbell, have argued that another referendum on the terms of the deal would be legitimate, but many voters see this as a devious attempt at a do-over.

Then there is the tribalism, which is intense. The referendum formalised a deep cultural divide. We know that party identification is in decline, Green says. It could be the case that leave or remain is a more important identity. In many cases, the vote manifested beliefs that had been entrenched for decades. The campaign mattered, but it revealed divisions with deep roots, she adds. When people have held a view for a long time, thats harder to change in the short run.

To admit that you now believe you were wrong requires unusual honesty and courage; publicly to admit it takes even more. I contacted dozens of leave voters who had expressed regret on public forums. Many didnt reply. Some agreed to talk, and then got cold feet at the last moment. A few, fearful of stoking tensions with relatives and colleagues, or of attracting abuse from Brexiteers, would only be interviewed anonymously. Others wouldnt risk even that. I have too many related family and business issues to deal with around this subject, one told me. Any hint would damage me even more.

In politics, like many other spheres, we tend to valorise certainty and stigmatise ambivalence. A politician who sticks to their guns (even if theyre rigid, incurious and dogmatic) will fare better than one who vacillates (even if theyre honest, open-minded and justifiably cautious). This is why undecided voters drive us crazy, writes Kathryn Schulz in Being Wrong: Adventures In The Margin Of Error. They think hard about something that most of us dont have to think about at all. What these voters represent, however, are possibilities the rest of us often foreclose: the ability to experience uncertainty about even hugely important beliefs the ability to wonder, right up until the moment that the die is cast, if we might be wrong. And, in some cases, the ability to admit, after the fact, that they made the wrong call.

Mark
Serviceman Mark Olive: We were deliberately misled. Photograph: Lewis Khan for the Guardian

Mark Olive is a 30-year-old serviceman who lives in the south of England. Before the referendum was announced, he had never thought much about the EU, so he tasked himself with reading as much information as he could from all sides. I was just getting a negative feeling about the EU, like it didnt serve the interests of our country, he says. The main reason that he was undecided until referendum day was the tenor of the leave campaign. When I saw Nigel Farage and his Breaking Point poster, I thought, actually, I dont like any of the people who want to leave the EU.

Nonetheless, he went for leave. I went to sleep thinking that we werent going to leave and in the morning I was shocked. I remember when I went to the cafe on camp, I felt very bad straight away. There are Europeans working there and it occurred to me that I hadnt even thought about them during the campaign. All these issues started popping up. I hadnt thought about half of them.

Many regretters report experiencing a visceral emotional jolt when they heard the result. From the moment I watched the results revealed live on television that night and my vote for leave played a part, I didnt feel joy, says JC, a 49-year-old former NHS worker from Manchester. I felt dread and fear over what would unfold for our country. Then it transpired that the leave campaign backtracked on the 350m NHS ad. I knew wed been fed BS.

People are more likely to change their minds when theyre presented with new information than when theyre asked to reassess what they already knew. For the regretters, its often not that key facts were unavailable at the time; rather that the complexity of the issue meant they were too easily overlooked, or the leave campaign misrepresented them, or the remain camp failed to make them unignorable. While most voters, having done their democratic duty, moved on, regretters continued to weigh the evidence.

Olive has done a lot of soul-searching. He did his research, yet still feels that he missed many important factors. The experience has made him more cynical about politicians (he has since switched from Conservative to Labour) and the media. I think a lot about how the media shaped my views, he says. Would I have voted differently if Id gone about it a different way? I definitely resent the way some of the campaigning was done. I think we as a nation were deliberately misled.

Graeme Berry, a 48-year-old carer from Livingston, Scotland, came to the leave camp via the leftwing strain of Euroscepticism known as Lexit, persuaded that the EU was a big-business dictatorship that prevented true socialism from being implemented. I had misgivings from the morning the result was declared, he says. The most enthusiastic leavers appeared to be on the right. I thought: what have I done? Before the referendum, Berry had emailed the EU requesting clarification of the rules on certain issues. The reply, sufficiently thorough enough to demolish the arguments that he had believed, arrived a few days too late. I feel that, compared with the Scottish referendum, not enough time was given for ordinary people to learn all the facts. To be honest, I didnt know anywhere near enough to make such a monumental decision.

Some leave voters U-turned months later, based on subsequent developments and revelations. John Chalmers, 60, runs a guest house in north Lincolnshire, a region that voted leave by a 2:1 margin. Although he was aware of the economic risk, he was swayed by his friends and neighbours, the rapid influx of eastern European migrants to Lincolnshire and the promise of more money for the NHS. He is now a staunch remainer. I think were aware of a lot more now than we knew during the campaign, he says. What to do with this new information? Do we act on it or say no, sorry, the decisions been made? I think we should act on it.

Paul Hartley, a 37-year-old mechanical engineer from Lancaster, describes himself as centre-left and instinctively pro-EU, but was turned around at the last minute by his father, who argued in favour of sovereignty and taking back decision-making powers. That resonated with me, Hartley says. I spent weeks convincing my partner to vote remain only to spend the last few days convincing her to vote leave! (She didnt.)

He felt regretful as soon as he saw how the victors were framing the result. Every time I hear a politician talking about immigration and the will of the people, that is not what I voted for at all. The leave vote has been completely hijacked by the extreme right. I thought that common sense would prevail, but that hasnt happened. As for his fathers sovereignty argument: Thats a bit of a red herring. Weve always had the power to make decisions anyway. Still, he is sanguine about his error. Im quite comfortable with making mistakes and changing my mind. I think thats important. I wish Id voted the other way but I dont lose too much sleep over it.

Meanwhile, David Towne (not his real name) has literally lost sleep over his decision. A thirtysomething moderate Conservative who works for a non-profit in London, he describes his guilt as a kind of psychological crisis. Despite being a longstanding Eurosceptic who preferred a European Free Trade Association-style agreement, he remained open-minded but was turned off by the remain campaign. I reverted back to my gut feeling, because there was a lot of shit-throwing and smearing, he says. I dont think the remainers I knew were looking to convert anyone to their cause. It was just: lets denounce you all as Ukippers and racists. This caricature of the angry, immigrant-hating leaver doesnt ring true for me at all.

He was shocked and panicked by the result. Nobody in London was happy about it, and it suddenly dawned on me that Id voted against the interests of my city. It was a dark time. I was taking too much responsibility on myself. In retrospect, Ive realised its disproportionate and others are far more responsible. I am just one tiny dot in the electorate. But I just felt totally fucked. Id done something to harm my country, which I love.

The gravity of the decision to switch from leave to remain means that regretters tend to take a hard line on Brexit. When I presented them with various scenarios, some chose a second referendum, but others wanted the process stopped in its tracks. If I could wave a magic wand, Olive says, I wouldnt want us to leave at all, because I honestly dont think it would do anyone any good. Towne agrees: Id love to call the whole thing off. Its been head-in-hands awful, watching the lack of vision and Theresa Mays ridiculous culture war soundbites.

Most people I spoke to felt that holding a referendum to decide policy, rather than to gauge public opinion, had been a disastrous decision in the first place. They should have measured feelings so they could go back and negotiate, Chalmers says. A company doesnt run that way. Youd need a quorum to make a decision like that.

Hartley has been disturbed by the surge in aggressive behaviour towards people in Lancaster who arent white and British, including some friends from Lithuania. Its almost like its now OK to be racist. People arent afraid to show those feelings. Even if for some reason we dont leave, I worry about the impact on the country.

For me, leaving the EU has cast a huge cloud of gloom and anxiety, JC says. The Tories put this mess in the hands of the British public, and for that I will never forgive them.

***

Anyone who follows the Brexit debate via the news, Facebook or Twitter could be forgiven for thinking that both sides are inflamed with righteous passion. But Rosamund Shaw has encountered complacency and detachment among her leave-voting friends. They wont talk about it, she says. They have this Pollyanna attitude: itll be fine. I cant decide if theyre being ostrich-like or if they believe it.

Olive has also encountered a reluctance to discuss Brexit. A lot of people who voted leave are very casual about it. They dont think about it that much. The feeling I get is people have their minds made up, and they want to be left alone to move on to other things.

For most Britons, Brexit is a phoney war that barely touches their lives. From a personal point of view, things havent changed, so theres no reason for them to change their minds, YouGovs Twyman says. Its like Vietnam during the Kennedy years. Its this thing that you watch on TV but you think doesnt affect you, and it wont affect you until its your son getting the draft papers. Ive been doing this job for 17 years and Im never surprised by the lack of attention that most people pay to politics. We know that a lot of people voted to leave the EU so they wouldnt have to discuss Brexit again, little knowing that were going to have to do nothing but that.

Individually, regretters are powerless. In sufficient numbers, however, they could be extremely influential. Even when 64% of voters in YouGovs latest poll think the negotiations are going badly, Brexiteers can shoot down criticisms by invoking the will of the people. But what happens to their mandate, and the perceived validity of a second referendum, if the will of the people shifts decisively and MPs begin to fear for their seats?

The mainstream media is slanted towards leave, Berry says. There is no recognition of people changing their minds. I have been very active on social media to spread the truth about the EU and what we will lose. I have been accepted by the remain side. I have also made friends on the leave side, with those willing to listen. Many have changed their opinion, too.

It bothers me that remain politicians and public figures arent talking to regretters, Towne says. If you want to stop or dilute this thing, then you should be appealing to us. My friends and family who voted leave can all see its a shitshow, and we all wish we hadnt voted for it. Im talking about dozens of people. I think there are a lot of shy regretters who dont show up in the polls. I think if the polls start to switch, then slowly but surely the discourse will change.

Green says it would take a seismic event significantly to move the needle. She cites Britains ugly exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992, which hammered the Conservatives reputation for economic competence. People change their minds when something shakes them out of their resistance, she says. Symbolic events that are so politically salient that you have to adjust your opinion. I think with Brexit things will have to go badly wrong. Something that you cant rationalise away.

Twyman expects to see serious movement only when a final deal is presented to the public. Seventy per cent of people believe that in theory we should leave the EU, he says, citing a recent poll in which only 32% actively wanted to thwart Brexit. But what if thats 10 groups of 7% or 20 groups of 3.5%, each group with its own particular requirements? And what if the deal thats struck appeals to only one of those groups? Theres huge potential for change.

Until that happens, a straight leave/remain binary wont reflect the more subtle changes unfolding beneath the surface. I think people can see that its not going well, but is that enough for them to say they would have voted in a different direction? Green says. I dont think it is just yet. People are more likely to say they dont know than they are to switch sides. Thats the destination for a lot of people who have reservations.

Far from being a dead zone of apathy, the category of Dont Know ranging from 10% to 15% in polls may therefore contain some of Britains most thoughtful, self-questioning voters. Chalmers proposes that we think differently about the value of changing our minds and view regret as a virtue, rather than a vice.

I dont feel like you have to be weak, he says briskly. You can apologise, pick up the pieces and make yourself stronger out of it. If youve made a mistake, realise it, undo it and move on. Not everybody can do that.

Some names have been changed.

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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit

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